Gay marriage in Utah
 

If Nate Silver is right, Utah is on track to permit gay marriage by 2013.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/...-marriage.html

One problem with this model is the assumption that public opinion will continue to move towards gay marriage--and the reason that the assumption might not be correct is that with increasing states legalizing gay marriage, voters will have a chance to measure and judge how successful the experiment was. Now it might be this could accelerate acceptance of gay marriage, or it could put the brakes on. Or it could have no effect. But my guess is that it will have an effect, I just can't predict which direction.

Another problem with this model is that it does not factor in the political imperative of the First Presidency. If the FP endorsed gay marriage, it would happen this year. If the FP firmly opposes it, it will not happen until many years after this model would have predicted.

See the Utah liquor laws for a case-in-point.

Utah will take longer than predicted because its low number of "white evangelicals" will cause the model to lowball the amount of time it will take. Mormons will delay the legalization every bit as much as white evangelicals, but that's not captured with this variable.

Majority of states will do it by 2013. That's not enough time to judge.

That could be. I wondered as well whether or not he was considering Mormons to be "evangelicals" for the purposes of his modeling. Interestingly, SLC is growing rapidly, and primarily through non-Mormon growth. By 2013, the composition of the state will be even more diverse, religously speaking, particularly if the economic crisis in California hastens the flight from California for many who can no longer afford to stay.

It seems like a stretch to me that Utah would be on track to legalize gay marriage by 2013, but the modeling is interesting nonetheless.

In some ways, it is a dangerous battle for the church in Utah, politically. If they were to lose in Utah, it would mark a dramatic shift away from the sway of church leadership in the church's "capital."

Really? I wonder if people said the same thing when Utahns voted to repeal prohibition.