NY Times: as of 9/24, Obama has an 81.9% probability of winning
 

17 of the past 18 candidates who lead in the polls with 45 days remaining, won the election. The lone loss was Dewey to Truman.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.../?ref=politics

Update: now with five weeks to go, current state-by-state poll numbers have Obama's likelihood of winning up to 85.1%. Electoral vote of 320 to 218.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

(This is not a personal endorsement, just an observation).

I would hold judgment until after the debates. I don't think most people that are undecided have started paying attention yet. There is some fluidity left out there.

!!!!!

Gore: It was the altitude!

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner...jonah-goldberg

LOL.

These two candidates certainly looked like one has been through twenty debates over the past year, while it was the other's first in four years. Still, you would expect some preparation by the incumbent. It will be interesting to see Fact Check.org's final analysis of who more eloquently lied to 314 million people (or its more commonly known heading, "who won the debate").

Obama has never been a good debater. But now that he has no record to run on...

UPDATE

Now with only 4 weeks left, Obama's probability has dipped to 78.4%, from last Monday's 85.1%. The electoral forecast now sits at 308 to 230, down from 320 to 218.

Interestingly, last Thursday evening (24 hours after the first debate), Obama's probability had risen to over 86%, but sunk 8 points over the weekend. Apparently Romney's spin on the unemployment numbers and his 47% apology carried more weight than the debate.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

UPDATE

With 3 weeks left, Obama's probability of winning has dropped to 66.0%, down from 78.4% last week. The current electoral forecast is 289 Obama, 249 Romney.

Also, of the 9 swing states that pundits say will decide the election, 5 shifted their outlooks rightward over the past week:
Colorado: previously was lean Obama, now is a tossup
Florida: previously was lean Obama, now is lean Romney
New Hampshire: previously was likely Obama, now is lean Obama
North Carolina: previously was tossup, now is lean Romney
Virginia: previously was lean Obama, now is a tossup

The 4 swing states that haven't budged:
Iowa, Nevada, and Ohio still lean Obama, while Wisconsin is likely Obama.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

this stuff from Nate Silver, from what I heard, leans so far to the left that it is ridiculous.

It is still too early to know what is going to happen, with two debates to go.

Certainly the wind is blowing in Romney's favor.

UPDATE

Two weeks left. Obama's probability of winning is up 1.6 from a week ago to 67.6%. Although most say that he narrowly "won" the second debate, he not receive nearly the same bounce as Romney the week before.

The electoral forecast is 288 Obama, 250 Romney, an Obama -1 from last week.

The only change in the swing states is North Carolina is now likely Romney. Pennsylvania has suddenly been added as the tenth swing state, and debuts as likely Obama.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Lastly, whomever "wins" tonight's debate will likely again be whomever has waxed so cold at telling lies that it is better presented as his second nature. See this fact-check analysis of the second debate from the Annenberg Public Policy Center:

http://factcheck.org/2012/10/factche...ofstra-debate/

I'm not sure a foreign policy debate matters much, other than style and perception of leadership.

For example, I don't think the Libya colossal F-up matters much to Americans (sadly). Obama can lie through his teeth and that's gonna work.

Agreed, however few people expect them to stick to foreign policy. Each "answer" will be 10% vaguely addressing the question and 90% trash talking one another on unrelated matters.

Agreed again.

UPDATE

One week left, and there was an upswing for Obama since last Monday. Presently his probability of winning is 74.6% (+7.0), with 297 electoral votes (+9).

A natural disaster is headed towards the East Coast. Certainly Romney's focus group is working overtime to determine the best way to criticize how Obama handles the crisis, and especially to howl over the emergency funding. They need to take a delicate approach though, considering North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio and New Hampshire are swing states.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Uninstalling Obama......... ███████████████▒ 97% complete.

Romney has to win all the states solidly and leaning towards him now, plus Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado.

Silver is essentially calling it for Obama. At 86% in his model.

I hope he eats crow.

Nate Silver does tend to lean left. If we look elsewhere, such as to Wall Street and Las Vegas where they use trading/gambling instead of polling, Obama is presently a 66.8% favorite on Intrade and at 80% on betfair.

Some right wingers call Obama the worst president since Hoover. If that's so, you'd think they could have come up with a candidate worth voting for, but they best they found was Captain Etch-a-sketch.

Allegedly, 81% of the world hopes that Obama wins. Of the 36 nations polled, only China favored Romney.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...-election.html

those people are stupid. They think Michael Jackson is awesome.

Dating back to the 1988 election, Nate Silver's state-by-state polls have been 96% accurate. Only 3 of 79 ultimately had the wrong winner:

2004 Ohio: Kerry +0.2 (Bush prevailed 2.1)
2004 Wisconsin: Bush +1.0 (Kerry prevailed 0.4)
1996 Colorado: Clinton +3.8 (Dole prevailed 1.4)

he wasn't doing this in 1988.

True. A better way of wording it would have been, of the polls that Silver currently uses, which have been active since 1988, they have been 96% accurate.

His final electoral projection as of this morning is 313 Obama 225 Romney.

looking very grim for Romney. Needs a straight flush.

This was a wake up call for the GOP. I wonder if anybody at HQ was listening. I sort of doubt it.

The Mormon moment is gone forever.

FWIW, it's true that the Democrats have received the highest popular vote in 5 of the past 6 presidential elections; however, of the 4 elections where they took control of the White House, this was their narrowest win.

1992: Clinton +6.5% of the popular vote
1996: Clinton +8.5%
2000: Gore +0.5%
2004: Kerry -2.4%
2008: Obama +7.2%
2012: Obama +2.7%

It's not as though they have an iron grip on 2016 or 2020. Only one of the past four elections has been a landslide.

More on Nate Silver's sudden popularity:
http://storify.com/assignmentdesk1/drunknatesilver

Mormons will fade into obscurity. The Mormon moment was microscopic, measured in microns.

The GOP is comatose. The GOP goes out of its way to offend women, such the morons in Indiana and Missouri, or by Ryan's defunding of Planned Parenthood, or to see how much we can alienate Hispanics. The GOP leadership should drawn, quartered, then shot and hanged.

I am pissed by the stupidity of party leadership. IF I ever see a Tea Partier, I want it in a history class.