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-   -   The market is crashing, why hasn't the government stopped this? (http://www.cougarguard.com/forum/showthread.php?t=23481)

UtahDan 10-09-2008 08:45 PM

The market is crashing, why hasn't the government stopped this?
 
I was under the impression that the government could control the economy and fix whatever is wrong with it by pressing the right buttons. I was assured that the 700 billion dollar button that just got pushed would do the trick.

I'm starting to think that our government can't actually manipulate everything. First we can't seem to get Islamic extremists to do what we want and now the market doesn't respond when we snap our mighty fingers.

Perplexing.

Tex 10-09-2008 08:46 PM

I was just thinking this afternoon how ironic it is that the great market crash did not come while waiting for the bailout vote, even with the House voting down the first proposal.

Then the bill passes, and the market crashes. Amusing.

BlueHair 10-09-2008 08:51 PM

This is all panic driven. Panic caused by the government tooting the "credit crisis" horn. I hadn't heard anything about a credit problem until the government stepped in. I'm not saying there wasn't a problem, but it seems their solution has caused a meltdown that may or may not have happened without their intervention.

MikeWaters 10-09-2008 08:53 PM

President Bush ramped up the fear when he argued for the bailout. Many have been critical of him for it. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Tex 10-09-2008 08:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeWaters (Post 277508)
President Bush ramped up the fear when he argued for the bailout. Many have been critical of him for it. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The failure of a few multi-billion dollar firms might have played a tiny role too.

BlueHair 10-09-2008 09:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeWaters (Post 277508)
President Bush ramped up the fear when he argued for the bailout. Many have been critical of him for it. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

He is a smart bastard. There was a huge transfer of power to the government. He has done more for government power than any ruler since Hitler. Domestic spying, central police force, market control. He also got Congress on board. The man is a genius.

The next few months will be fun with conspiracy theorists. I predict the "Amero" crowd will be out in full force.

Cali Coug 10-09-2008 09:40 PM

I think today was the 2nd largest percentage drop in history (although nowhere near first place).

Tex 10-09-2008 10:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cali Coug (Post 277533)
I think today was the 2nd largest percentage drop in history (although nowhere near first place).

Mmmm, not sure that's accurate. If memory serves, 1929 and 1987 both were roughly 20% in one day.

pelagius 10-09-2008 10:25 PM

I don't now what the DJIA looks like, but here are the 10 worst days in terms of rate of return for the entire market (all U.S. equities as a value-weight portfolio) from 1926-2007:

Code:

19291028 -11.170
19291029 -11.858
19291106  -9.605
19321005  -7.210
19330720  -8.457
19330721  -9.423
19371018  -8.078
19400514  -7.172
19871019 -17.135
19871026  -8.259


TripletDaddy 10-09-2008 10:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pelagius (Post 277559)
I don't now what the DJIA looks like, but here are the 10 worst days in terms of rate of return for the entire market (all U.S. equities as a value-weight portfolio) from 1926-2007:

Code:

19291028 -11.170
19291029 -11.858
19291106  -9.605
19321005  -7.210
19330720  -8.457
19330721  -9.423
19340726  -7.079
19371018  -8.078
19400514  -7.172
19871019 -17.135
19871026  -8.259


That was a bad week, back in 29.

pelagius 10-09-2008 10:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TripletDaddy (Post 277562)
That was a bad week, back in 29.

Late July of 33 was no picnic either.

BigFatMeanie 10-09-2008 10:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pelagius (Post 277559)
I don't now what the DJIA looks like, but here are the 10 worst days in terms of rate of return for the entire market (all U.S. equities as a value-weight portfolio) from 1926-2007:

Code:

19291028 -11.170
19291029 -11.858
19291106  -9.605
19321005  -7.210
19330720  -8.457
19330721  -9.423
19340726  -7.079
19371018  -8.078
19400514  -7.172
19871019 -17.135
19871026  -8.259


I wonder why t the market doesn't ever crash in December or January? Why is October the most common month for a big crash?

pelagius 10-09-2008 11:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigFatMeanie (Post 277566)
I wonder why t the market doesn't ever crash in December or January? Why is October the most common month for a big crash?

Sorry, December had some bad days, you just have to go back more. Here is th DJIA (I can go back 1896 with the dow):

1896-2007

Code:

      +-----------------------+
      |      date        ret |
      |-----------------------|
  896. | 18DEC1899  -11.99214 |
 8288. | 28OCT1929  -13.47188 |
 8289. | 29OCT1929  -11.72882 |
22824. | 19OCT1987  -22.61054 |
      |-----------------------|


SeattleUte 10-09-2008 11:07 PM

I'm leaving this up to the experts, in terms of when to buy and sell.

But for what it's worth, my own gut feeling is it's going to fall a lot more. The problem is that all the prior means and methods of valuing these derivative contracts and securities are exposed as junk. These assets comprise a huge part of our companies' assets; hence, we don't know what anything is worth.

The problem isn't that they're worthless. Somewhere somehow the underlying real estate is worth something to someone. The problem is nobody knows WHAT anything is worth.

Everything was built on assumed valuations in which no one any longer believes. It's like a worlwide loss of faith. A worldwide apostasy from our erstwhile pagan gods. We need something new to believe, new shiboleths, because scrolls have been found in a dusty corner of a museum that expose all our savings accounts as a huge collective fraud.

This raises all kinds oof metaphysical questions amounting to, what is value? Questions that should have been asked all the while bankers were being paid eight figures. For what?

Maybe Lenin was right. The only real value is created by laborers.

BarbaraGordon 10-09-2008 11:17 PM

Did I mention that my superhero husband pulled out of the market back when it peaked last spring? Is there anything this man can't do? I think I'll start a blog about him.

Flystripper 10-09-2008 11:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BarbaraGordon (Post 277586)
Did I mention that my superhero husband pulled out of the market back when it peaked last spring? Is there anything this man can't do? I think I'll start a blog about him.

can you compare and contrast Flash to mikewaters in this blog? TIA

BarbaraGordon 10-09-2008 11:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flystripper (Post 277589)
can you compare and contrast Flash to mikewaters in this blog? TIA

I'm hoping to, but for starters I've never actually seen Mike. If anyone has any photos, please feel free to oblige.

Flystripper 10-09-2008 11:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BarbaraGordon (Post 277593)
I'm hoping to, but for starters I've never actually seen Mike. If anyone has any photos, please feel free to oblige.

Just imagine some skinny short asian dude. They all look the same, right?









I have lots of asian friends so I am clearly not racist.

BarbaraGordon 10-09-2008 11:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flystripper (Post 277596)
Just imagine some skinny short asian dude.

And here I thought he was a skinny tall Asian dude.

Tex 10-09-2008 11:41 PM

I keep hearing people say, "Worst economic times since the Great Depression," including all the time from Obama.

This tagline really confuses me. Have we lost all sense of proportion? Have you seen photos, histories, stories about what times were like during the Great Depression? Does anyone remember the 1970s? Hello??

Of course current conditions are serious, and of course, it could potentially get a lot worse. But economic times are FAR off what the Great Depression was like. I've said elsewhere citing the GD is the equivalent of bring up Adolf Hitler in a debate. It's weak. It's a copout.

Unemployment is at 6% for crying out loud. Six percent. That's a far cry from 25%. I get tired of this constant whiny, panicky pessimism that wants to turn every economic downturn into the "Worst Ever" (cue scary music).

Bush is not the worst president in the history of the country. These are not the worst economic times since the Great Depression. Go pick up a history book and gain some perspective, folks.

SeattleUte 10-10-2008 01:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tex (Post 277605)
I keep hearing people say, "Worst economic times since the Great Depression," including all the time from Obama.

This tagline really confuses me. Have we lost all sense of proportion? Have you seen photos, histories, stories about what times were like during the Great Depression? Does anyone remember the 1970s? Hello??

Of course current conditions are serious, and of course, it could potentially get a lot worse. But economic times are FAR off what the Great Depression was like. I've said elsewhere citing the GD is the equivalent of bring up Adolf Hitler in a debate. It's weak. It's a copout.

Unemployment is at 6% for crying out loud. Six percent. That's a far cry from 25%. I get tired of this constant whiny, panicky pessimism that wants to turn every economic downturn into the "Worst Ever" (cue scary music).

Bush is not the worst president in the history of the country. These are not the worst economic times since the Great Depression. Go pick up a history book and gain some perspective, folks.

Tex, it wasn't like that in 1929. The stock market crashes because it anticipates 1933.

Tex 10-10-2008 01:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SeattleUte (Post 277635)
Tex, it wasn't like that in 1929. The stock market crashes because it anticipates 1933.

Then say, "we are at risk of becoming ..." or "if we don't act, it's possible that ..."

I realize that doesn't pack the political punch of, "THESE ARE THE WORST" but it's just plainly not true.

Cali Coug 10-10-2008 03:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tex (Post 277553)
Mmmm, not sure that's accurate. If memory serves, 1929 and 1987 both were roughly 20% in one day.

It was actually the 11th worst in history. Still not great. 1929's largest drop was about 12% apparently.

8ballrollin 10-10-2008 03:49 AM

Well, Asia is off to a roaring start this Friday...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EN225

SeattleUte 10-10-2008 04:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 8ballrollin (Post 277759)
Well, Asia is off to a roaring start this Friday...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EN225

Just remember, I'm the one who said the markets would keep falling. I hope I'm wrong.


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