What chance does BYU have to win a first round Tourney game?
 

I suppose it turns on whether Tyler Haws can contribute enough and whether Davies contributes, as well as any match ups.

As usual, the roster is not loaded with speedy, NBA future pros, but it is from top to bottom, probably better than it has been, but the big question, does it finally have a money player.

Fredette will probably be the money player with Tavernari sharing the load at scoring. I know Mike, you find him to be a waste, but he's what we have this season.

A couple of players, if they mature, might be able to add quite a bit, Noah Hartsock and James Anderson. Both have some mobility not usually associated with BYU bigs.

Fredette is usually stable and a tough player.

Morgan and Lloyd provide some defense with limited offensive options. Let's hope Morgan drops his turnover ration and that Lloyd's shot has improved.

Miles is what he is, but he's really the main power big. After that Hartsock provides some defensive capabilities but lacks the mass.

Wildcards which might dictate how BYU does are Abouo, Davies and Haws. If any of these make significant contributions, BYU could be a good team winning that magical Tourney game, after so many years. Is there a balm of Gilead, will Moses finally see the promised land?

Emery is a serviceable guard and then two guys whom I suppose practice hard, Zylstra and Magnusson.

Naturally I'd like some more power in the paint, and some NBA hops, but this is BYU, so get real. Overall, not a bad team, but are our forty years finally over?

The marquee games, which don't appear to be that great, are Bradley, November 13, Arizona State, December 8, and Arizona, December 28.

That doesn't mean anybody such as Weber or USU can't sneak up upon us, or even Nebraska or Tulsa, but the schedule lacks an ACC or Big 10 to demoralize us.

Unless the conference plays tough, the downside for a schedule such as this one, is that the team won't know what it feels like to face Tourney teams and may be once again, too soft to reach the promised land of the Final 32.

Alas, the schedule may be the worst part of trying to reach orgasmic nirvana.

A team that will be extremely weak defensively at the 4 and 5. Will not have shot-blocking, will likely struggle with rebounding.

I predict they will go to the dance and lose in the first round, meaning that for BYU, it will be an extremely successful season.

Hartsock demonstrated some shot blocking ability as did Anderson. Miles does not have that.

Do you know that Davies lacks defensive skills? I know little about him except that he played in Provo, which usually raises my suspicions about his basketball skills.

I wouldn't call Miles extremely weak, just not exceptionally strong on defense. We will be short though.

Lots and lots of 6'5", 6'6" type players.

But I agree our interior defense may be a big problem. However, do we have anybody on the schedule which will intimidate our middle?

Arizona shredded Utah in the Tourney despite playing up and down. Did they lose any of their players to normal attrition or NBA?

For Arizona State, did Harding move on?

After considering our schedule, the players we have, it looks as if Moses remains in the desert yet another year, lest we underestimate some of the players such as Haws and Davies.

Look at Miles rebounding numbers.

End of story.

So you don't believe if Anderson or Hartsock compensate for that abomination, or that our big guards rebound well, we can overcome a non-jumping, non-shooting, non-shot-blocking center? You may have a point.

We were big once, now we're a smallish team that's not particularly fast. Not exactly the best combination. Maybe Anderson mans the middle and you use Mills as a big forward.

Miles' high rebounding games are only two, last year in conference at 8? That's horrible.

Teams with less talent than BYU win first round games every year.

Why doesn't the Y then?

That is a very good question.

Here are some teams that won first round games last year:

Western Ky
Siena
Cleveland State
Dayton

There were also many others that were seeded lower than us who gave their high seeded opponent a much better game than we did to A&M, including USU's near upset of Marquette.

You can try to overanalyze the reasons all you want, but dumb luck is as much of a reason as anything else. None of those teams that I listed above are teams you or I would fear in the regular season.

And even though we haven't won recently, except for last year, BYU actually has played pretty well in their previous recent appearances. Xavier was a darn good team that should have beaten #1 seed Ohio State after they slipped by us. If I remember right, we had something ilike three shots at practically point blank range in the last few seconds of that game that all missed. Then we had to foul and they beat us by 3 or 4 points.

I don't care what Mike says, the streak can't last forever. We have had some teams that were talented enough to win a game. We just haven't had the breaks. But I like what Rose is doing and IMO, he's ten times the coach Cleveland was, although I think Cleveland did the best he could.

Shawn Bradley's win was a long time ago. Or did we defeat SMU without him.

Winning in the Tourney is fun, and I really have no fun, except to see the little puppies whip a big dog now and then, if other teams win. Okay I lied, I had a smidgeon of fun when Utah did well, but that feels like a long time ago as well.

The bad part of being a fan of BYU or another less successful school, is you often need to have great memories, because unlike being a fan of Kentucky or North Carolina, you don't have to remember very long before another Tourney run comes along. Yet, becoming a fan of a school with which one has no affiliation is not an option.

If Miles can make some improvement at the line, rebound say, 6 to 7 times per game and Tav has improved based on his Brazil team experience, a country which should be cursed for its lack of observance of the rule of law, then this year might be rewarding.

I don't expect too many losses, save perhaps to Arizona, one to UNLV, Utah and probably one to SDSU, and the probably the first round Tourney loss.

The SMU win was in 93 while Bradley was still on his mission. The losing streak bothers me as much as it could any follower of BYU basketball. It's very frustrating. However, if we only lose the games you've indicated, we will get a high enough seeding that we should win in the first round. I've consistently argued that BYU's NCAA tournament problems are a result of failures in the regular season and weak scheduling. We never seem to do enough to warrant much better treatment than the committee gives us, so we keep getting slapped with seedings even the great program to the north of us couldn't win. In fact, Utah has very seldom won an NCAA game when they've been seeded in the bottom half of the bracket. If we can ever get to the top half we'll probably win.

To me, it seems BYU's receiving an upper end bracket seeding depends upon very few losses and a win against Arizona, no home losses and no more than three conference losses. Given the lack of depth in the front line, that might be a tall order.

13-3 in conference is doable and we can go undefeated at home. A win over ASU is necessary. A win over Arizona might be a longshot but I don't think it's impossible. If all we have is 4-5 losses I think a 5-7 seed is realistic.

I concur with your assessment. Of course, a key injury and all our speculation is for naught. Loss at Utah, UNLV and SDSU. Wild card might be how UNM progresses. They could also add an another away loss.