Predictions for the TdF?

[creekster]

AN7one care to make a pick?

Ullrich? Basso? Leipheimer or Landis? Hard to say. I am going on vacation starting on Friday and will try to leave my prediction before I go, but I am curiosu what you all think . . . .

[Archaea]

I'm stuck between Basso and Ullrich, not knowing which to pick.

[bluegoose]

Without hesitation, I'm taking the popular pick - Ivan Basso.

I also predict a stage victory for Hincapie.

Repeat prologue victory for Zabriskie.

ITT victory for Ullrich.

I also predict being able to see no fewer than 30 bony prominences on Michael Rasmussens skeleton, leading him to a repeat polka dot jersey win.

Tom Boonen will come away with no fewer than 3 stage wins.

Vinokourov will make things very interesting with unrelenting attacks in the mountains, but never a stage victory.

But mostly just tour dominance by Basso and an overall poor performance by the Disco boys.

If I think of any more, I'll write an addendum. If, after 2 weeks, I'm starting to look foolish, I'll just go back and edit this post. Thats the beauty of the delete button.

[bluegoose]

And one other thing - a podium finish for Northern California's own Levi Leipheimer.

[Quisqueyano]

My vote is for Ulrich. I think he really wants this one bad.

[cougjunkie]

Ullrich for sure, finally gets his chance to be the bride and not the brides maid.

[bluegoose]

Ullrich for sure, finally gets his chance to be the bride and not the brides maid.

He's been there, done that. 1997 - the last guy not named Lance to win the tour.

Now Basso, the last 4 years has finished something like 12th , then 7th, then 4th, and last year 2nd. No place to go but the top, if the trend holds true.

[SteelBlue]

I'm picking Basso. Ullrich second.

Did Zabriskie make his team?

[bluegoose]

Yes, Zabriskie made CSC by the skin of his teeth, at least that's they would have you believe. He'll be there, at least until the road turns upwards.

[DirtyHippieUTE]

Assuming Ulrich and Basso both bring their best to the tour I'm going to go with Ulrich. One word... Team.

If Lance and the Discovery/Postal boys have taught us anything, it's that cycling is a team sport. Lance always had superstar riders on his team that were willing to kill themselves to put Lance in just the right position to win.

Last year Ulrich got screwed. Between Andre Vinokourouv trying to take the lead and Erik Zabel trying to win the green jersey, Jan didn't have the support of a coordinated team effort.

Look at the teams this year:

T-Mobile: Jan + gang. There are several accomplished riders but NO stand out names other than Jan. It is obvious that Jan is in the driver's seat and I think this will be his advantage.

CSC: Basso has all stars who might have an agenda of their own.

Carlos Sastre: doesn't this guy go for the polka dots? He'll be a helper if he can play the team game the way the Discovery guys did for Lance.

Stuart O'Grady: what good does this do? O'Grady is a green jersey contender and it's not like having a great sprinter on his team is going to help him dominate in the mountains (where this year's tour will be decided).

David Zabriskie: Sure he's a Utah boy and he's great at the ITT but how does that help Basso?

The rest of his team seems to be full of potential good little helpers. Namely; Jens Voigt, Frank Schleck, Giovanni Lombardi, Christian Vande Velde and Bobby Julich.

The thing is... Can CSC play the team game as well as Discovery. I think T-Mobile learned its lesson last year. I bet we'll see a much stronger team effort from them.

Side note: Who will be at the front of the Discovery pack this year? George?

If so, I give him a shot at the yellow. He could have been a podium finisher over the past few years if he weren't so busy busting his arse for Lance. If Discovery sticks to its solid team strategy the leader of the pack has a good chance. They still have an incredible supporting cast (Tricky, Echimov, Popo, George, etc...)

[Quisqueyano]

Assuming Ulrich and Basso both bring their best to the tour I'm going to go with Ulrich. One word... Team.

If Lance and the Discovery/Postal boys have taught us anything, it's that cycling is a team sport. Lance always had superstar riders on his team that were willing to kill themselves to put Lance in just the right position to win.

Last year Ulrich got screwed. Between Andre Vinokourouv trying to take the lead and Erik Zabel trying to win the green jersey, Jan didn't have the support of a coordinated team effort.

Look at the teams this year:

T-Mobile: Jan + gang. There are several accomplished riders but NO stand out names other than Jan. It is obvious that Jan is in the driver's seat and I think this will be his advantage.

CSC: Basso has all stars who might have an agenda of their own.

Carlos Sastre: doesn't this guy go for the polka dots? He'll be a helper if he can play the team game the way the Discovery guys did for Lance.

Stuart O'Grady: what good does this do? O'Grady is a green jersey contender and it's not like having a great sprinter on his team is going to help him dominate in the mountains (where this year's tour will be decided).

David Zabriskie: Sure he's a Utah boy and he's great at the ITT but how does that help Basso?

The rest of his team seems to be full of potential good little helpers. Namely; Jens Voigt, Frank Schleck, Giovanni Lombardi, Christian Vande Velde and Bobby Julich.

The thing is... Can CSC play the team game as well as Discovery. I think T-Mobile learned its lesson last year. I bet we'll see a much stronger team effort from them.

Side note: Who will be at the front of the Discovery pack this year? George?

If so, I give him a shot at the yellow. He could have been a podium finisher over the past few years if he weren't so busy busting his arse for Lance. If Discovery sticks to its solid team strategy the leader of the pack has a good chance. They still have an incredible supporting cast (Tricky, Echimov, Popo, George, etc...)


Correct me if i'm wrong here, but didn't Ulrich put his head through a team car window last year and leave the race early?

[creekster]

Correct me if i'm wrong here, but didn't Ulrich put his head through a team car window last year and leave the race early?


Head through window: Yes, but it happened just before the Tour started

Ullrich finsihed the tour in '05, just not as well as he had hoped.

[DirtyHippieUTE]

Correct me if i'm wrong here, but didn't Ulrich put his head through a team car window last year and leave the race early?

He was 3rd overall 6'21" behind Lance. He kicked some serious ass in the last TT to overtake that skinny dutch guy.

[creekster]

He's been there, done that. 1997 - the last guy not named Lance to win the tour.

Now Basso, the last 4 years has finished something like 12th , then 7th, then 4th, and last year 2nd. No place to go but the top, if the trend holds true.

Last guy not named Lance was Pantani in 98 who, in what may have been a drug-enhanced stupor of exertion, pulled off the double Giro/TdF win that Basso is going for this year. Ullrich won it the year before Pantani.

[DirtyHippieUTE]

Last guy not named Lance was Pantani in 98 who, in what may have been a drug-enhanced stupor of exertion, pulled off the double Giro/TdF win that Basso is going for this year. Ullrich won it the year before Pantani.

Pretty much every Lance hater in the world hopes that Basso can pull that off this year. He's got the pink jersey and is one of the favorites for the yellow.

I'll lay money now that if he does, all the cycling fans from across the pond will be talking about how Lance was a one race rider not an all around champ.

While I agree with them to an extent (and so does lance, he's said many times that he's nowhere near as tough as the old guys who had to race every race and not just the TdF)...

One double up by Basso does not a champion make. The Euro trash is looking for ANYTHING to keep the tour (and the sport) away from American dominance again.

[bluegoose]

He was 3rd overall 6'21" behind Lance. He kicked some serious ass in the last TT to overtake that skinny dutch guy.

Yes, he did make up some serious time on Rasmussen in the ITT, but this was more due to a horendous performance by skeletor. He crashed, what 2 or 3 times, had a 2 wheel changes, blew himself up. Just a nightmare. i felt bad for the poor guy. I think Ullrich breathing down his neck had something to do it obviously, and Jan probably would have overtaken him anyhow. But it had to be the worst ITT in tour history.

[creekster]

Yes, he did make up some serious time on Rasmussen in the ITT, but this was more due to a horendous performance by skeletor. He crashed, what 2 or 3 times, had a 2 wheel changes, blew himself up. Just a nightmare. i felt bad for the poor guy. I think Ullrich breathing down his neck had something to do it obviously, and Jan probably would have overtaken him anyhow. But it had to be the worst ITT in tour history.

That really was a memroable ITT. Skeletor (and I love that nickname) was all over the road. It was like the guy had just learned how to ride a bike. I remember the second crach he looked like he just rode into the ditch and then sort of stood therre looking like he wished he had stuck with curling instead of getting into cycling while some mechanic tried to swap the wheel. Very funny but sad.